ISM PMI Macro Scenario Cheat Sheet

A free one-page quick reference for classifying the macro environment

FREE

⚠️ Honest disclaimer: This is an organizational framework, NOT a validated trading signal. A real S&P 500 event study (72 ISM releases, 2023–2026) found the classification does NOT statistically predict 5-day returns (p=0.643). Use this as a journaling/organizing tool, not a standalone edge.

The 4 Scenarios

Scenario	ISM PMI Range	Macro Meaning	Sector Bias
🟢 GOLDILOCKS	52 – 56	Growth + cooling inflation	Tech, discretionary
🟡 MODERATE	50–52 or >56	Growth but stress	Industrials, energy
🟠 SOFT_LANDING	48–50 (rising)	Contraction easing back	Quality, low-vol
🔴 CONTRACTION	< 48	Recessionary	Defensives, cash

How to Use This (3 Steps)

Watch the ISM release — first business day of each month, 10:00 ET. Source: ismworld.org or FRED series ISM/MAN_PMI.
Classify the print into one of the 4 scenarios using the table above.
Journal your positioning decision + review 5/10/21 days later. The value is the discipline, not prediction.

Try the Live API (Free, No Signup)

curl -X POST https://macro-scenario-api.onrender.com/classify \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"ism_pmi": 47.2, "cpi_yoy": 3.1, "fed_rate": 5.25, "unemployment": 4.1}'

Returns the classified scenario + rationale instantly.

Want More? (Paid)

A static card can't auto-classify, store history, or show your hit-rate. The full toolkit does:

$7 Notion Journal

Auto-classifies each release, stores your trade log, computes your personal hit-rate.

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$14.99 Bundle

Notion + Live API + Dashboard. Classifies via API, visualizes scenarios.

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